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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2026 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOYS V MANLY SEA EAGLES | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Total Points) Over 52.5 for 4 units (Rated at $1.60) The best total of the week comes in the Round 7 opener when the Cowboys host the Sea Eagles on Thursday night. The last six games of last round all topped 52 points. Manly have scored at least 24 in six of the last eight against North Queensland. This is a huge over spot for both teams too. The over hits at 62% when the Cowboys are off a win including going 10-4 when they are off scoring 35-plus. The over is 23-13 when they play teams outside the Top 8. On the Manly side, the over is 15-10 when the Sea Eagles play a Top 4 team and 16-11 when they are off scoring 28 or more. This game has a lot of points in it.
CANBERRA RAIDERS V MELBOURNE STORM | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Canberra +2.5 for 3.5 units (Rated at $1.70) Melbourne are in rare territory right now, having lost four straight and conceded 50 and 38 in each of the last two weeks. They are in crisis mode and will face a difficult task as a road favourite in the nation's capital. Canberra have a very good record against Melbourne with three wins in the last five clashes to go with four clashes. Home underdogs cover at 62% in the first eight rounds while Canberra are 25-16 against the spread as an underdog. They have covered 16 of 24 off conceding 30-plus. The Storm are not in a great spot. Their rebound numbers can be disregarded after their showings the last two weeks while they have covered just four of 15 interstate. Canberra are a highly confident play.
DOLPHINS V PENRITH PANTHERS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Penrith -14.5 for 1 unit (Rated at $1.75) There is a lean toward the Panthers when they play the Dolphins in Darwin on Friday night. The key to this game is Penrith's loss to Canterbury last week. No team rebounds better than the Panthers. Penrith are 17-7 against the spread off a loss while they have covered eight of nine off a double digit defeat. Penrith have covered seven of nine when favoured by eight or more while they have covered eight of nine against teams outside the Top 8. Penrith will be focused this week and the Dolphins coaching and playmaking is not smart enough to break down Penrith. The minus should hit.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS V GOLD COAST TITANS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Gold Coast +10.5 for 4.5 units (Rated at $1.55) The Titans are an utterly ridiculous price this week against a Warriors team that rarely performs when favoured and has a very poor record against the Gold Coast. The Warriors cover at just 38% when favoured while they are 0-10 against the spread the last four years when favoured by double digits. New Zealand rarely back up a win either with just five covers in their last 15 off a win of 20 or more. The Titans have also won six of the last eight against the Warriors with five covers in that run. They have won their last three at Mt Smart and teams off scoring 50 are a perfect 6-0 against the spread in Rounds 5 to 8. The plus is an elite bet.
SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS V ST GEORGE/ILLA DRAGONS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) St George Illawarra +13.5 for 1 unit (Rated at $1.80) There can be absolutely no faith shown in the Dragons given how they have completely no-showed this season but the numbers dictate they are a bet being given a huge start against an inconsistent South Sydney. The Rabbitohs have covered just five of 15 off scoring 30-plus while they are 14-20 against the spread when favoured. The Dragons are 19-12 against the spread off a double digit loss while they have covered 13 of 19 getting a start of 10 or more points. The Dragons can only be taken on trust but if betting this game they are the play getting a huge start.
WESTS TIGERS V BRISBANE BRONCOS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap ) Wests Tigers -13.5 for 1.5 units (Rated at $1.70) The Wests Tigers have been super impressive this season with the work Benji Marshall has put in over the offseason really paying off. The Broncos have a dominant record over the Tigers with three straight wins of 22-plus but given the injury toll at Brisbane they seem ripe for the picking against a white-hot Tigers outfit. Teams off scoring 40 or more cover at 61% Rounds 5 to 8 while the Tigers are 17-8 against the spread off conceding 20 or fewer. The Broncos cover record drops from 62% to 33% when Reece Walsh is out while they are 0-7 against the spread when both Walsh and Adam Reynolds are out, which is again a distinct possibility.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS V NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Newcastle +10.5 for 2 units (Rated at $1.70) Newcastle are one of the most underrated teams in the premiership this season and look a tremendous bet against the Roosters getting a start of 10.5 points. The Chooks come off a highly impressive win when rolling Cronulla in Perth but that trip is a concern and generally happy to take on most of the teams on the trip back. The Roosters have covered seven of nine against the Knights but this is a different team with Justin Holbrook at the helm. Teams off conceding 40-plus cover at 64% in Rounds 5 to 8 while the Knights are 28-14 against the spread in day games. The Roosters have covered just 11 of 26 off a win of 13-plus. This start looks too big.
PARRAMATTA EELS V CANTERBURY BULLDOGS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Parramatta +10.5 for 3 units (Rated at $1.65) Round 7 wraps up with one of the fiercest rivalries in Australian sport with the Eels and Bulldogs squaring off at CommBank. It has been a difficult season for the Eels, who have given up 48-plus in three of their six matches as a large injury toll takes hold. There is just no way the Bulldogs should be favoured by double digits though. Canterbury were super impressive last week in putting Penrith to the sword but it was their first impressive showing of the year. The Bulldogs have failed to cover four straight at CommBank while they are 8-14 against the spread when favoured by more than a converted try. The Eels are a very nice play.
SEASON PREVIEW- 2026
The compelling 2026 NRL season is wide open at the top of the ladder and is similarly full of chances at the bottom end of the ladder with six legitimate wooden spoon chances.
There has been a regularity with wooden spooners of late. In the 14 years since 2012, three teams have claimed 10 wooden spoons: Newcastle (4), Parramatta (3) and Wests Tigers (3). Teams have won back-to-back wooden spoons on six occasions. Bad teams tend to be stuck in the mire for quite a while.
This suggests Newcastle will find it incredibly difficult to get themselves off the bottom. The Knights are a club that organisationally is limited and have found themselves mired at the bottom of the ladder more often than not over the last decade. They get a boost from hiring a talented coach in Justin Holbrook but given the state of the roster, it will take time. The Knights have some talented backs but their investment in Dylan Brown is misguided and the attack will require a lot of work. The pack though is diabolical and with no depth this team looks the perfect wooden spoon candidate.
Gold Coast have the worst roster in the NRL and are another team in reset mode but they are under the odds to win the fewest games. For all their ineptitude they have just two spoons and one in the last 14 seasons. They finished on the same number of wins as the Knights last year but were significantly better, falling 2.6 wins shy of their true win number while going 1-5 in one-score game. They lost the third most games to injury last year. They will be bad but are likely a better proposition than the Knights this year and with an easy finish to the season they should find plenty of wins post-Origin.
Wests Tigers ended their run of three straight wooden spoons following some astute recruitment and what appeared to be some much-needed front office stability. That ended though with a boardroom coup that saw CEO Shane Richardson leave. Young talent Lachlan Galvin also walked. Benji Marshall has shown nothing as a coach and with one of the worst draws in the NRL, the Tigers look one of the better bets to run last.
St George Illawarra won no admirers with their poor loss in the Charity Shield when at full strength against a team of kids and NSW Cup players. Shane Flanagan's best trait as a coach though is getting his teams to bounce back after a poor showing and that will likely keep the Dragons away from last spot.
oth Manly and North Queensland likely have too much talent to run last but they profile as teams that can collapse quickly with both in line to fire their coaches this year. The Sea Eagles have never won the wooden spoon in their proud 79-year history and have the second easiest draw but they have a bottom four roster, a desperate coaching staff battling to save their jobs and look one Tom Trbojevic injury away from complete collapse. The Cowboys have no depth to their roster and after a cushy start to the season have a brutal final two-thirds. They are worth a speck after Round 8 if they win some games early.
Least Wins Recommended Bets/Trading Strategies
Back: Newcastle Least Wins @ $4.00 or Larger
Back: Wests Tigers Least Wins @ $5.50 or Larger
Back: Manly Least Wins @ $15.00 or Larger
Lay: Gold Coast Least Wins @ $7.00 or Smaller
Lay Later: Gold Coast Least Wins Post-Origin @ $5.00 or Smaller
Back Later: North Queensland Least Wins Post-Round 8 @ $21 or Larger
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