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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2026 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
WESTS TIGERS V CANBERRA | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Canberra +4.5 for 3 units (Rated at $1.65) Expectation is not the friend of the Wests Tigers and we saw that last week when the Tigers threw away a golden opportunity to roll the Broncos when favoured by 6.5 points at home. The Tigers have covered just four of 14 when favoured and just two of seven when favoured by at least a try. It is very much the reverse side of the coin for the Raiders, who are at their best when an underdog. They are 26-16 against the spread as an outsider with a 17-11 cover record when getting four or more points. When on the road getting four or more, they have covered 13 of 18. The loss of Hudson Young tempers enthusiasm for the Raiders a little but they are a very good bet getting over a try.
NORTH QLD V CRONULLA | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Cronulla -1.5 for 3.5 units (Rated at $1.60) Cronulla have completely dominated North Queensland for a long period of time and that shows no signs of abating against a flimsy Cowboys side this Friday. The Sharks have won 14 of the last 16 against the Cowboys with the last two wins being by 20-plus. They have won five of the last six at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. The Sharks have scored at least 26 in 12 of the last 13 meetings. In the last 19 clashes, the Sharks have covered 16 of them. It has been one-way traffic. The Cowboys were poor last week and there is nothing to suggest they can turn it around against a veteran team like Cronulla. The Sharks were also poor before a bye but they are 21-13 against the spread off a loss while they are 26-16 against the spread against teams outside the Top 8. The Sharks are outstanding value this week.
BRISBANE BRONCOS V CANTERBURY BULLDOGS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Total Points) Over 48.5 for 3 units (Rated at $1.70) Both the Broncos and Bulldogs have been hit hard by injury, making this game an incredibly difficult one to forecast. While there is no side play that appeals, there is a very nice play on the total. The last five between these two have topped 40 points with four of the five going over. It is more than notable that the over is 9-1 when the Broncos play without Reece Walsh or Payne Haas. The over hits at 57% when there is a home underdog between Rounds 5 and 8. On the Bulldogs side, the over is 5-2 when they are an interstate favourite and 13-9 when they are off conceding 30 or more. The over is a nice bet.
ST GEORGE/ILLA DRAGONS V SYDNEY ROOSTERS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Total Points) Over 52.5 for 2.5 units (Rated at $1.70) The Dragons finally pulled the pin on the Shane Flanagan era with the coach dismissed on Monday along with the GM of Football. We are hardly set for a new era though with long-time Dragons assistant Dean Young now in charge. The Roosters, by contrast, are running themselves into form with some red-hot attack that should be able to slice through the porous Dragons defence. While the minus is a play, the better bet is the over. The last seven between these two have gone over, all topping 46 points. The over is 4-0 when the Dragons play at Allianz while it is 11-6 when the Roosters are off scoring 30-plus and 31-23 when the Chooks are favoured. Expect plenty of points in this traditional Anzac Day affair.
NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS V DOLPHINS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) New Zealand +5.5 for 3 units (Rated at $1.75) The Warriors host the Dolphins in Wellington on Saturday evening and the visitors look an excellent bet. The Dolphins showed plenty of spirit in coming back from 18-0 down against the Panthers in oppressive heat to send the game to golden point. The Dolphins are 23-15 against the spread getting a start of a try or more while they are 27-20 against the number at night. This is a bad spot for the Warriors. As favourites, the Warriors cover at just 38%. They are a horrific 9-23 against the spread in their last 32 when favoured by a try or more. Andrew Webster's men are 9-17 against the spread off scoring 28 or more. The Dolphins are a very good bet.
MELBOURNE STORM V SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) South Sydney +3.5 for 1.5 units (Rated at $1.80) Melbourne have never lost to South Sydney in Melbourne and have won 31 of the last 36 clashes - but we are in rare territory for the Storm. They have lost five on the trot and are impossible to bet now, particularly when favoured. The Storm have covered just two of eight off conceding 26-plus while they have failed to cover six straight against Top 4 opposition. Souths have covered six of the last eight against Melbourne while they have covered five of seven against bottom nine teams. The Bunnies look the bet.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS V PENRITH PANTHERS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Total Points) Under 49.5 for 2.5 units (Rated at $1.70) The Knights and Panthers have a long history of low-scoring affairs and another under looks to be on the cards. The under has hit at 60% since 2008 between these teams while nine of the last 13 go under the total. The under is 31-22 when the Knights are an underdog. The under is also 12-6 when Penrith play day games and 15-10 when they are off conceding 22-plus. The under is one of the better total plays of the week.
MANLY SEA EAGLES V PARRAMATTA EELS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Total Points) Over 53.5 for 2.5 units (Rated at $1.70) Parramatta have been decimated by injury all season and Manly are now joining the party with Tom Trbojevic sidelined for at least six weeks. Turbo's loss hurts Manly's defence more than their attack with the over jumping up 7% when he is out. The over has hit in six of the last nine Manly-Parramatta games. It is 16-12 when Manly are off scoring 28 or more. Most notably the over is 17-6 when the Eels are an underdog of over a try away from CommBank. The over is a very good bet.
SEASON PREVIEW- 2026
The compelling 2026 NRL season is wide open at the top of the ladder and is similarly full of chances at the bottom end of the ladder with six legitimate wooden spoon chances.
There has been a regularity with wooden spooners of late. In the 14 years since 2012, three teams have claimed 10 wooden spoons: Newcastle (4), Parramatta (3) and Wests Tigers (3). Teams have won back-to-back wooden spoons on six occasions. Bad teams tend to be stuck in the mire for quite a while.
This suggests Newcastle will find it incredibly difficult to get themselves off the bottom. The Knights are a club that organisationally is limited and have found themselves mired at the bottom of the ladder more often than not over the last decade. They get a boost from hiring a talented coach in Justin Holbrook but given the state of the roster, it will take time. The Knights have some talented backs but their investment in Dylan Brown is misguided and the attack will require a lot of work. The pack though is diabolical and with no depth this team looks the perfect wooden spoon candidate.
Gold Coast have the worst roster in the NRL and are another team in reset mode but they are under the odds to win the fewest games. For all their ineptitude they have just two spoons and one in the last 14 seasons. They finished on the same number of wins as the Knights last year but were significantly better, falling 2.6 wins shy of their true win number while going 1-5 in one-score game. They lost the third most games to injury last year. They will be bad but are likely a better proposition than the Knights this year and with an easy finish to the season they should find plenty of wins post-Origin.
Wests Tigers ended their run of three straight wooden spoons following some astute recruitment and what appeared to be some much-needed front office stability. That ended though with a boardroom coup that saw CEO Shane Richardson leave. Young talent Lachlan Galvin also walked. Benji Marshall has shown nothing as a coach and with one of the worst draws in the NRL, the Tigers look one of the better bets to run last.
St George Illawarra won no admirers with their poor loss in the Charity Shield when at full strength against a team of kids and NSW Cup players. Shane Flanagan's best trait as a coach though is getting his teams to bounce back after a poor showing and that will likely keep the Dragons away from last spot.
Both Manly and North Queensland likely have too much talent to run last but they profile as teams that can collapse quickly with both in line to fire their coaches this year. The Sea Eagles have never won the wooden spoon in their proud 79-year history and have the second easiest draw but they have a bottom four roster, a desperate coaching staff battling to save their jobs and look one Tom Trbojevic injury away from complete collapse. The Cowboys have no depth to their roster and after a cushy start to the season have a brutal final two-thirds. They are worth a speck after Round 8 if they win some games early.
Least Wins Recommended Bets/Trading Strategies
Back: Newcastle Least Wins @ $4.00 or Larger
Back: Wests Tigers Least Wins @ $5.50 or Larger
Back: Manly Least Wins @ $15.00 or Larger
Lay: Gold Coast Least Wins @ $7.00 or Smaller
Lay Later: Gold Coast Least Wins Post-Origin @ $5.00 or Smaller
Back Later: North Queensland Least Wins Post-Round 8 @ $21 or Larger
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