3 minute read
Best bets on the first day of the Adelaide carnival at Morphettville on Saturday.
It's finally here. We arrive at Morphettville for the opening day of the Adelaide Racing Carnival and, honestly, it's hard to remember a stronger first day than the one we've been served up. With the spotlight firmly on the fillies and sprinters, the depth of quality engaged means we not only get high quality horses but also a wave of the country's best riders making the trip to South Australia. It's the perfect symbiosis that elevates the carnival from a local highlight to a genuine stop on the national autumn circuit.
And of course, it all unfolds on a day of national significance. After rising before dawn to pay our respects to the diggers, the march concludes, the pubs open, the two‑up rings fill, schooners start disappearing at a dangerous pace. Before you know it, it's ten past one and we're seconds away from launching into a blockbuster afternoon at Morphettville.
Bookended by two competitive handicaps, the middle seven races are all Group contests, headlined by the Group 1 Robert Sangster Stakes over 1200m & Group 1 Australasian Oaks over 2000m. The interstate pull is enormous this year, making Adelaide feel like it's one of the pillars of the national autumn carnival rather than an afterthought, and any horse turning up without this meeting as a genuine target is going to be found out quickly.
A quick word on the Sangster, because it's a beauty. As Brad Bishop expertly pointed out in this week's edition of A Closer Look, it remains Australia's only Group 1 race without a multiple winner. Three mares return this year with Group 1s to their name: Skybird, Benedetta and last year's winner Charm Stone, who will be looking for her third success at this level and her own slice of history. But it's the three‑year‑old filly Point Barrow who heads early betting after building on her Oakleigh Plate fifth to take out the G3 Don Casboult Classic. She's armed with a sharp turn of foot and will be rattling home if they hum early, but with the average winning RAS rating sitting at 114 across the past five years, she'll need to jump from her current 108 to be saluting. Skybird, meanwhile, was back to her brilliant best in the T J Smith, matching her peak 120 to finish within a length of Joliestar and Giga Kick. If she reproduces anything close to that, she looks awfully tough to hold out.
The Australasian Oaks sees the three‑year‑old fillies stretch to 2000m, and Getta Good Feeling is a deserved early favourite. The So You Think filly has been dynamic this prep, running to a peak of 107 (four times now), this puts her right in line with the 10‑year average for this race, and everything about her profile screams she'll be even better at the trip. She's the obvious one, maybe a little too obvious, which is why I can't let the local hope Mating Call go around without me. The Dan Clarken & Oopy Macgillivray filly was given a peach to win the G3 Auraria Stakes, the key lead‑up, and while Emily Finnegan is unlucky to lose the ride, Jamie Melham takes over and should have her blending into the race at exactly the right time from a middle draw. She'll need to improve again to match the historical winning figure, but I'm confident she can.
As for the best bet on the card, while there is plenty of strong betting angles it wasn't easy pinning specifically one down, but I've landed on Mcwoody in the 3YO Chairman's Stakes earlier in the day. His Port Adelaide Guineas win returned a RAS figure of 103, which puts him right in line with the average winning number of the Chairman's, and he looks even better suited stepping to 2000m. He's hit the ground running for the new stable, and if he simply holds his form, he'll be right there when it matters.
Say From SA:
Best: R3 #2 Mcwoody
Sangster (R8): #1 Skybird
Australasian Oaks (R7): #2 Getta Good Feeling / #5 Mating Call
