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Read our NRL expert tips and analysis for every game of the 2026 premiership season with Betfair’s NRL analyst. Includes game summaries, predictions, tips and best Back and Lay bets for every round. NRL tips for the upcoming round are online now!
CANTERBURY BULLDOGS V NORTH QUEENSLAND COWBOY | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Total Points) Over 50.5 for 3.5 units (Rated at $1.65) There looks to be plenty of points in the Round 9 opener when the Bulldogs host the Cowboys in what is a must-win affair for the home team. The Bulldogs are in the spotlight this week after two heinous losses so we should see their attack ready to fire. The top play in this one is certainly the over. The over is 13-6 when the Bulldogs play at Accor and are north of $1.70. It is 23-18 when they are off a loss. The over is also 19-10 when the Cowboys are off scoring 28 or more and 5-1 when they are off scoring 44. The over is 23-13 when the Cowboys play teams outside the Top 8. Expect plenty of points.
PARRAMATTA EELS V NEW ZEALAND WARRIORS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Parramatta +7.5 for 2 units (Rated at $1.80) There is no doubt that the Warriors are a significantly better team than the Eels this year but one thing New Zealand do not do is put ordinary teams to the sword when they are heavily favoured so Parramatta have to be the bet. The Warriors are an almost-unbelievable 9-24 against the spread when favoured by at least a try. They cover just 37% of games when favoured. The Eels have won six of seven against the Warriors with a 2-1 record at CommBank. Parramatta are 12-9 against the spread when an underdog at CommBank. The plus seems a little large.
SYDNEY ROOSTERS V BRISBANE BRONCOS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Brisbane +4.5 for 4 units (Rated at $1.60) The match of the round is unquestionably last year's premiers against the red-hot second favourites for this year's title. While the Roosters are getting plenty of kudos on the back of four straight wins where they have scored at least 33 points in each, it is the Broncos who should be getting more credit. They have been without nearly all of their best players but have won five of their last six including back-to-back impressive wins over the Tigers and Bulldogs. This is a nice spot for the Broncos, who are 17-8 against the spread as an underdog and 13-5 against the number at night. Brisbane are an excellent 21-12 against the spread when $1.70 or bigger. This line is too big.
CRONULLA SHARKS V WESTS TIGERS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Cronulla -7.5 for 2 units (Rated at $1.70) The Wests Tigers have been extremely impressive this year, working their way into the Top 4 on the back of a highly impressive defence that has not given up more than 22 points in a game this season. They face their biggest challenge this year though with key members Api Koroisau, Jahream Bula and Kai Pearce-Paul all missing. The loss of Koroisau, in particular, hurts with the Tigers 1-6 when he is absent. Cronulla's defence was utterly abhorrent in Townsville and they have now conceded 34-plus in three of their last five but this is a good bounceback spot. Cronulla have won 11 of the last 14 against the Tigers including five straight at Shark Park. Cronulla are 21-14 against the spread off a loss, 21-13 against the number at Shark Park and 24-19 against the spread off conceding 20-plus. The Sharks are likely to shorten as the week goes on.
NEWCASTLE KNIGHTS V SOUTH SYDNEY RABBITOHS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Total Points) Under 52.5 for 1.25 units (Rated at $1.80) Day games are always difficult to get too excited about the under but this game presents some under angles that are worth playing. The under has hit in seven of the last 11 Knights-Rabbitohs games. The under is 21-13 when the Knights are an underdog. The under is also 21-11 when Souths are off a win and 36-18 when they play in NSW. This total is very high. The under can be made an official play in this one.
PENRITH PANTHERS V MANLY SEA EAGLES | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Penrith -12.5 for 4 units (Rated at $1.60) Round 9 wraps up with one of the better bets of the week with Penrith laying 12.5 points. Manly have been impressive under Kieran Foran but the shine is coming off Foz-ball this week. Penrith have won 15 of the last 19 against Manly. The Panthers are 8-3 against the spread when laying eight or more points while Manly have covered just three of nine without Tom Trbojevic. The Panthers are a super bet laying up to 18 points.
DOLPHINS V MELBOURNE STORM | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Handicap) Dolphins -3.5 for 3.5 units (Rated at $1.60) Melbourne are in all sorts at the moment on the back of six straight defeats and without an idea of how to get out of it. Their defence is completely shot at present and their task got more difficult when Jahrome Hughes was ruled out. Craig Bellamy has made a few changes but fundamentally this Storm team need significant roster turnover. Melbourne are 4-12 against the spread interstate and have covered just two of nine off conceding more than 26. They are a poor night team too, covering at just 45%. The Dolphins are not reliable but they can expose teams on the edges and that is the nightmare scenario for the Storm.
GOLD COAST TITANS V CANBERRA RAIDERS | NRL
Betting Strategy
BACK: (Head To Head) Gold Coast for 2 units (Rated at $1.70) Canberra have a dominant record against Gold Coast with 11 wins in the last 12 but given the team changes at the Raiders, they seem ripe for the picking. Canberra are out their four top edge backrowers, meaning prop Ata Mariota will play on an edge while Simi Sasagi will move in meaning defensive liability Matt Timoko gets another game. Jayden Brailey at lock is also a major concern. The Titans have covered six of seven as an underdog against bottom five teams while they have covered 12 of 21 as a home underdog. The Raiders have covered just two of 10 interstate against bottom five teams. The Titans have been backed and they will continue to be.
SEASON PREVIEW- 2026
The compelling 2026 NRL season is wide open at the top of the ladder and is similarly full of chances at the bottom end of the ladder with six legitimate wooden spoon chances.
There has been a regularity with wooden spooners of late. In the 14 years since 2012, three teams have claimed 10 wooden spoons: Newcastle (4), Parramatta (3) and Wests Tigers (3). Teams have won back-to-back wooden spoons on six occasions. Bad teams tend to be stuck in the mire for quite a while.
This suggests Newcastle will find it incredibly difficult to get themselves off the bottom. The Knights are a club that organisationally is limited and have found themselves mired at the bottom of the ladder more often than not over the last decade. They get a boost from hiring a talented coach in Justin Holbrook but given the state of the roster, it will take time. The Knights have some talented backs but their investment in Dylan Brown is misguided and the attack will require a lot of work. The pack though is diabolical and with no depth this team looks the perfect wooden spoon candidate.
Gold Coast have the worst roster in the NRL and are another team in reset mode but they are under the odds to win the fewest games. For all their ineptitude they have just two spoons and one in the last 14 seasons. They finished on the same number of wins as the Knights last year but were significantly better, falling 2.6 wins shy of their true win number while going 1-5 in one-score game. They lost the third most games to injury last year. They will be bad but are likely a better proposition than the Knights this year and with an easy finish to the season they should find plenty of wins post-Origin.
Wests Tigers ended their run of three straight wooden spoons following some astute recruitment and what appeared to be some much-needed front office stability. That ended though with a boardroom coup that saw CEO Shane Richardson leave. Young talent Lachlan Galvin also walked. Benji Marshall has shown nothing as a coach and with one of the worst draws in the NRL, the Tigers look one of the better bets to run last.
St George Illawarra won no admirers with their poor loss in the Charity Shield when at full strength against a team of kids and NSW Cup players. Shane Flanagan's best trait as a coach though is getting his teams to bounce back after a poor showing and that will likely keep the Dragons away from last spot.
Both Manly and North Queensland likely have too much talent to run last but they profile as teams that can collapse quickly with both in line to fire their coaches this year. The Sea Eagles have never won the wooden spoon in their proud 79-year history and have the second easiest draw but they have a bottom four roster, a desperate coaching staff battling to save their jobs and look one Tom Trbojevic injury away from complete collapse. The Cowboys have no depth to their roster and after a cushy start to the season have a brutal final two-thirds. They are worth a speck after Round 8 if they win some games early.
Least Wins Recommended Bets/Trading Strategies
Back: Newcastle Least Wins @ $4.00 or Larger
Back: Wests Tigers Least Wins @ $5.50 or Larger
Back: Manly Least Wins @ $15.00 or Larger
Lay: Gold Coast Least Wins @ $7.00 or Smaller
Lay Later: Gold Coast Least Wins Post-Origin @ $5.00 or Smaller
Back Later: North Queensland Least Wins Post-Round 8 @ $21 or Larger
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